Modelling Memory of Economic and Financial Time Series
نویسنده
چکیده
Much time series data are recorded on economic and financial variables. Statistical modelling of such data is now very well developed, and has applications in forecasting. We review a variety of statistical models from the viewpoint of ’memory’, or strength of dependence across time, which is a helpful discriminator between different phenomena of interest. Both linear and nonlinear models are discussed. JEL Classification: C22 ∗This paper is based on a public lecture presented at the University of Western Australia in September 2004. This research was supported by ESRC grant R000239936.
منابع مشابه
On The Behavior of Malaysian Equities: Fractal Analysis Approach
Fractal analyzing of continuous processes have recently emerged in literatures in various domains. Existence of long memory in many processes including financial time series have been evidenced via different methodologies in many literatures in past decade, which has inspired many recent literatures on quantifying the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) characteristics of financial time series. Th...
متن کاملDemand for Money: A Study in Testing Time Series for Long Memory and Nonlinearity
This paper draws attention to the limitations of the standard unit root/cointegration approach to economic and financial modelling, and to some of the alternatives based on the idea of fractional integration, long memory models, and the random field regression approach to nonlinearity. Following brief explanations of fractional integration and random field regression, and the methods of applyin...
متن کاملTesting for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study
This paper draws attention to the limitations of the standard unit root/cointegration approach to economic and financial modelling, and to some of the alternatives based on the idea of fractional integration, long memory models, and the random field regression approach to nonlinearity. Following brief explanations of fractional integration and random field regression, and the methods of applyin...
متن کاملTesting Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study
Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modelling. In this paper, Robinson test (1994) is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.
متن کاملMachine learning algorithms for time series in financial markets
This research is related to the usefulness of different machine learning methods in forecasting time series on financial markets. The main issue in this field is that economic managers and scientific society are still longing for more accurate forecasting algorithms. Fulfilling this request leads to an increase in forecasting quality and, therefore, more profitability and efficiency. In this pa...
متن کامل